Autonomous vehicles could improve public health if they are electric and share rides, researchers say.
However, self-driving cars might undermine public health if they depend on fossil fuels and individual ownership, researchers say.
By 2045, as much as half of new vehicle sales and 40 percent of vehicle travel could be autonomous, according a June report from the Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Such projections led researcher David Rojas-Rueda at Colorado State University and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and his colleagues to analyze the potential benefits and risks all these autonomous vehicles (AVs) might pose for public health.
The scientists noted that use of AVs is likely to reduce the number of road accidents. If 90 percent of the cars in the United States were to become fully autonomous, an estimated 25,000 lives could be saved every year, with economic savings estimated at over $200 billion a year.
Recent models suggest AVs could increase the amount of vehicle miles traveled by up to 59 percent as well as reduce the use of public transportation. This in turn would reduce the amount of public walking, cycling, or walking to and from public transport, with such reductions in physical activity having negative impacts on public health. However, shared AVs could decrease the amount of vehicle miles traveled by up to roughly 25 percent if many travelers took part in ridesharing, the researchers noted.
If future AVs still rely on fossil fuels, however, the resulting air pollution would impair public health, especially if the amount of vehicle miles traveled increased. However, electric AVs would pollute less, the scientists noted. “Most people think that traffic incidents will be the primary health impact, but there is much more than traffic safety,” Rojas-Rueda said.
All in all, Rojas-Rueda suggested “AV technologies should be implemented in communities without transport options, which can complement public and active transportation.” He also suggested AVs would benefit public health if they were used in areas with higher traffic injury and fatality rates and with more air and noise pollution.
